Could a Recession Be Coming to Canada? Here’s What It Means for Newfoundland and Labrador
- tonia503
- Jun 26
- 3 min read

A new report from Deloitte suggests that Canada might fall into a mild recession by the middle of 2025. That word—recession—can sound scary, but let’s take a closer look at what’s happening and what it means, especially for us here in Newfoundland and Labrador.
So, What’s Going On?
Deloitte predicts that Canada’s economy will slow down in 2025. Specifically, they expect two quarters in a row where the economy shrinks, which is considered a technical recession.
The main cause? New tariffs from the United States. Our biggest trading partner is now charging extra taxes on important Canadian goods like steel, aluminum, lumber, and cars. That makes it harder for Canadian companies to sell these products, especially in provinces that rely heavily on manufacturing.
How Will This Affect Newfoundland and Labrador?
Here’s the good news: Deloitte says Newfoundland and Labrador, along with Alberta and Saskatchewan, is better positioned than other parts of the country to weather this slowdown.
Why? Our strength in energy exports. Oil and gas continue to be in demand, and our province’s role in natural resource production puts us in a more stable spot than provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and B.C., which depend heavily on manufacturing and exports to the U.S.
That said, we’re not completely in the clear. Slower national growth can still affect things like federal funding, business investments, and consumer confidence—so we may feel some ripple effects.
What About Jobs?
Nationally, the job market is expected to tighten. Deloitte predicts unemployment could rise to about 7.3% by fall 2025, especially in sectors hit hardest by the trade slowdowns. Here in Newfoundland and Labrador, we may see fewer direct layoffs from manufacturing, but if consumer and business confidence drops, hiring and investment could slow across many industries, including retail and services.
What’s Being Done to Help?
There are a few encouraging signs:
Lower interest rates: The Bank of Canada may lower rates again in July and September. That means borrowing could become cheaper, which helps people with mortgages, businesses that need loans, and anyone thinking of investing.
Federal infrastructure investment: The government is also planning to spend more on infrastructure projects—think roads, bridges, and community facilities. That could bring jobs and funding to our province.
Boosting interprovincial trade: Efforts to make it easier to do business across provinces could benefit local entrepreneurs and service providers here in Newfoundland and Labrador.
What Should We Expect?
While the first half of 2025 might feel slow, experts believe the economy will start to pick back up by the end of the year. Deloitte predicts modest growth in 2025 (around 1.1%) and slightly better in 2026 (1.6%).
For Newfoundland and Labrador residents, this means staying informed, managing your finances wisely, and watching for new opportunities—especially in sectors like energy, construction, and local tourism.
As always, if you’re unsure how these economic changes might affect your mortgage or financial plans, I’m here to help guide you through.
-Tonia, The Mortgage Missus
Contact The Mortgage Missus Inc. today to learn more!
About the author,
Tonia Mercer is an independent mortgage broker. She has been in the industry for 17 years, in 2021 she launched her own brokerage The Mortgage Missus Inc.
Tonia is passionate about financial education and believes that working with independent experts is the best way to get unbiased, professional advice. She has joined forces with local independent home and auto, financial advisor, legal, appraiser and real estate service providers. Effectively creating a concierge service for all things financial and real estate.
Tonia donates a portion of all mortgage revenue to Mercer's Mission, a street dog and cat feeding mission in the Dominican Republic. https://www.facebook.com/mercersmission
Comments